I do not want you to go to bed disheartened, so I am typing fast some positive thoughts I got while walking the dog.
One thing I was afraid with Chavez death while in office, in what is apparently a personal tragedy, was the creation of the lacking myth, a myth enough to allow chavismo to survive him like a curse over Venezuelan politics like peronismo has been for Argentina. The way I see it now, the intensity of infighting inside chaivsmo while Chavez is still not officially dead raises some hope in me that chavismo may self destroy before it takes root. All the other myths seem to have failed Chavez, be it the February 1992 failed coup or even April 13 which he killed through over use. But a "made for" heroic death could have done the trick, á la Che. Fortunately the poor quality of his followers may spare us the creating of a hard core peronismo like movement in Venezuela.
The other thing is that chavismo has decided to postpone elections. Now that Maduro is the one assuming office as soon as Chavez dies he may want to call for elections as safer for him, Cabello now on the sidelines. But we can count on Cabello to postpone that for a while, unless the Cubans pull the plug. After all, they are back in the driving seat, as of today, holding the plug on Chavez.
The opposition may thus be given a unique trump card: the later the elections, the better its chances. I reckon that each month that goes by chavismo loses 0,5% from its October score (maybe more depending on how repulsed chavismo is with recent events). Thus with November, December and now January and February for sure (I doubt they will announce Chavez death until late January so elections are now the last Sunday of February at the earliest), we have 4 X 0,5= 2% less for chavismo, 53%. As early as May the opposition could be in a true challenging position, the more so if chavismo devaluates before the election. Though of course, after today there is very serious doubts about elections and their fairness.....
And even if Chavez managed to come back from the Cuban grave. The divisions inside chavismo are now so big that he will never be able to reassert his authority the way he did.
Venezuela es otra.
